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Sunday, September 21, 2008

Electoral Vote Remains Close

George Wenschhof

Last Sunday, I reported had it McCain 270 and Obama 268. There were 5 weak leaning Democratic states with a total of 68 electoral votes and 5 weak leaning Republican states with a total of 54 electoral votes. 270 is the number needed to win the Presidency.

A few things to keep in mind as voters in states fluctuate. One is is what will be the turnout of younger voters on November 4. They are not likely to be showing up in the current poll data and a large turnout will probably aid Obama.

The other thing to watch is the impact of Bob Barr and Ralph Nader on the ballot. Both campaigns are saying they expect to be on all the state ballots. In a close election, a percentage point or two could make a difference - remember 2000? has more on this here.

Let's take a look to see where things sit today.

Today, has it Obama 273 and McCain 265. The difference from last week is New Mexico with 5 electoral votes went from weak leaning Republican to weak leaning Democrat. Expect Governor Bill Richardson to do his best to have this state vote Democratic.

Swing States - (Electoral Votes), 9-14- 9-21

Washington - (11), D-D
Colorado - (9), D-D
Minnesota - (10), D-D
Michigan - (17), D-D
Pennsylvania - (21), D-D

Nevada - (5), R-R
New Mexico - (5), R-D
Indiana - (11), R-R
Ohio - (20), R-R
Virginia - (13), R-R

Last week, there were ten swing states. This week, there are 15 swing states.

New Battleground States since last week:

Wisconsin - (10), D
New Hampshire - (4), D
Maine - (4), D

West Virginia - (5), R
Florida - (27), R

Remember, the first Presidential debate will be Friday evening so it will be a little early to see the impact when we update our report next Sunday. However, it is likely the three Presidential debates and the one Vice-President debate will have an impact on the 7% to 8% undecided voters.

Stay Tuned.

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