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Sunday, September 14, 2008

Electoral Vote as Close as it Gets

George Wenschhof

Seven weeks to go to election day and has it McCain 270 and Obama 268. The number needed to win is 270 out of the available 538 electoral votes.

It now appears it is down to ten swing states who will determine the next President of the United States and Florida is not now one of them. Florida and it's 27 electoral votes are now considered in the "solid" Republican column.

Not surprisingly, the ten states still in play are equally divided with five leaning Democratic and five leaning Republican. These ten states have a combined 122 electoral votes. Without these states included, the total electoral votes for each candidate is McCain 216 and Obama 200.

The five swing states leaning Democratic are Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), Michigan (17), Pennsylvania (21) and Washington (11). These states total 68 electoral votes and if Obama won all five he would still be 2 electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win.

The five swing states leaning Republican are Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), Indiana (11), Ohio (20), and Virginia (13). These states equal 54 and if McCain wins all five he wins the election with 270, the exact number needed to win the election.

The McCain campaign must retain Ohio and Virginia in their column and the Obama campaign must retain Pennsylvania and Michigan in their column.
It is possible for the Obama campaign to win this election without carrying Florida and Ohio, the two states which were critical in the 2000 and 2004 elections. All they would have to do is maintain the current 5 Democratic leaning states and add either New Mexico or Nevada.
How these ten swing states vote will determine the next President so pay attention to how both candidates campaign in these states over the next seven weeks.
It is exciting to see the states: Washington, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, and Indiana possibly being the deciding states in this election.

Stay tuned for these swing state numbers will fluctuate as the election nears. We will update you weekly.

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