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Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Kentucky and Oregon Results - Live Blogging

9:59 PM ET Clinton, as expected, won Kentucky big. 97% reporting Clinton 65%, Obama 30%

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is reporting they raised 31.3 million in April.

Here is some exit polling from Oregon and Kentucky.

Clinton again says she will continue through June 3rd, where she predicts neither candidate will have the 2210 delegates needed to win the nomination - of course this is moving the chains again by including Michigan and Florida, instead of the current accepted number of 2025 delegates.

I did a statistical analysis adding the remaining superdelegates, pledged delegates from Puerto Rico, S. Dakota and Montana - then added Michigan and Florida delegates - Clinton would need to win 65% of the remaining total delegates to reach 2209 - it won't happen and remember when the credential committee of the DNC meets on May 31st to decide on how to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida, they will realize that Obama was not even on the ballot in Michigan. Conversely, Obama would only need to win 38% of the remaining total delegates to reach 2209 after the chains were move to increase the yardage needed.

Senator Obama is scheduled to speak at 10:00 PM ET in Iowa.

10:15 PM ET Obama begins his speech with thoughts and thanks directed to Senator Kennedy. Juts recently, it has been reported that the brain tumor is inoperable.

Obama speaks of being in Iowa where this improbable journey began with a win in their caucus. His early theme is there is one-America. He does say he returns with a majority of the pledged delegates (pundits wondered if he would say this) He goes on to congratulate Senator Clinton for her victory in Kentucky. Speaks about how some may think the party is divided but he sees the democratic party as united against McCain and four more years of a Bush-like administration. He speaks about all the lobbyists running McCain's campaign and that it is time for a change.

A good speech on change needed in education, energy programs, foreign policy... An energetic crowd, with plenty of 'Yes We Can" chants. Change is coming to America. Thank you Iowa! Video of Speech.

10:37 PM ET Oregon Polls close at 11:00 PM ET and some results will available shortly.

11:00 PM ET NBC projects Obama as the winner in Oregon. 11% reporting, Obama 63%, Clinton 37%

11:24 PM Et 35% reporting, Obama 60%, Clinton 40% If this holds what I said earlier in a post will hold true and Clinton will only gain a dozen delegates on Obama as a result of the two primaries today. The Clinton campaign continues to press the popular vote advantage - they will gain about 100-125K today but they always add Michigan and Florida - which by now, everyone knows is hardly fair. As I have railed about for five months now, the Democratic party needs to revise their entire presidential nomination process. However, all the candidates knew the rules going in this year.

11:40 PM ET 48% reporting in Oregon, Obama 57%, Clinton 43%

Goodnight and let the spin begin.

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